民国时期四川省霍乱流行的时空规律及驱动因素

Spatio-temporal distribution and environmental influencing factors of cholera in Sichuan Province during the period of the Republic of China(1912-1949)

基于疫灾史料和环境资料,采用时空分析方法、地理加权回归及地理探测器,分析民国时期四川省霍乱的时空分布规律及驱动因素.研究发现:1)民国时期四川省的霍乱疫情在波动中发展,出现1916年、1920年、1939年、1945年四个明显高峰,高发于夏秋两季.2)霍乱疫情波及范围呈现扩大趋势,由早期的斑块分散状到中后期逐渐集中连片扩展,四川中部是霍乱爆发的集聚区.3)自然和人文环境因素交织推动霍乱的出现和发展,影响因素的交互作用皆呈非线性增强和双因子增强,人口数量、洪涝灾害因素具有正向影响且存在明显的空间差异.研究可为烈性传染病的防控提供历史经验.

Based on historical and environment data of the epidemic,spatio-temporal analysis method,geographically weighted regression and geographic detector were used to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution and driving factors of cholera in Sichuan Province during the period of the Republic of China.The results are shown as follows.1)Cholera epidemics in Sichuan Province developed in fluctuation with four distinct peaks in 1916,1920,1939 and 1945,and high incidence in summer and autumn.2)The epidemic area of cholera shows an outspread trend,from early dispersion to gradual concentration and continuous expansion in the middle and late stage.The central Sichuan are the gathering area of cholera outbreak.3)Natural environment and cultural environment comprehensively affects the emergence and development of cholera.The interaction of influencing factors exhibited to enhanced by two factors or nonlinearly.The population size and flood disaster have positive effects with obvious spatial differences.This study would provide historical experience for the prevention of highly infectious diseases in the post epidemic era.