货币政策产业异质性效应的微观机制研究——来自高新技术企业面板数据的微观证据

Micro-mechanism Research on the Heterogeneous Effect of Monetary Policy between Industries

货币政策的产业异质性效应对于制定宏观货币政策和理解货币政策传导机制具有重要意义,国内外研究多基于宏观数据展开且未达成一致结论。本文首先基于要素密集度差异的利率传导渠道和所有制差异的融资约束渠道分析货币政策对工业和服务业企业的要素投入决策和产出规模的差异性影响,然后使用中关村2001—2012年企业面板数据,采用三重差分法进行实证检验后发现:第一,宽松货币政策会刺激高新技术企业增加资本和劳动投入,进而扩大产出,但对工业高新技术企业的刺激作用大于服务业高新技术企业;第二,宽松货币政策提高了高新技术企业资本深化程度,且工业高新技术企业的资本深化加深程度更显著,同时其显著降低了工业高新技术企业的劳动者报酬份额,但对服务业高新技术企业无显著影响;第三,机制检验表明,这种异质性影响是利率传导渠道和融资约束渠道共同作用的结果。本文的研究与基于加总时间数据及上市公司数据的研究形成互补,研究结论意味着瞄准经济增长率的货币总量控制目标应该与时俱进地考虑经济结构与社会发展目标的转变。

The heterogeneous effect of monetary policy across industries is of great significance for macro-monetary policy making and for understanding the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.However,domestic research on this important issue has not yet reached a consensus,and there are still some problems in the research data.Therefore,this paper first analyzes the differential impact of monetary policy on the industrial and service firms and puts forward theoretical propositions,based on the interest rate transmission channel of factor intensity differences and the financing constraint channel of ownership differences.Then,by using the firm panel data of Zhongguancun from 2001 to 2012,the industrial effect of monetary policy is evaluated by using DDD method,and arrive at the following conclusion:first,the loose monetary policy will promote the invest,employment and output level of firms,but the rise of the industrial firms is significantly greater than that of service firms;second,it increases capital deepening of firms and is more significant for industrial firms,while it significantly reduces the share of labor compensation for industrial firms and has no significant effect on service firms;thirdly,further mechanistic tests demonstrate that this heterogeneous effect is the result of both the interest rate transmission channel and the financing constraint channel.This paper is complementary to the research based on aggregated time series data and listed company data,and suggests that the target of monetary policy aimed at economic growth rate should consider transformation of the industrial structure.