《美国情报界全球威胁评估》报告演进分析

Analysis of Evolution of Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S.Intelligence Community Reports

[研究目的]2006年至今,美国情报界已发布《美国情报界全球威胁评估》报告共17篇,通过研究分析其演进特点及动因,以期探索美国对威胁重点确定的规律,预知美国下一步的关注方向和重点并采取相应的对策。[研究方法]采用文献研读法、情景结合法、对比分析法、定性与定量结合分析法以及归纳总结法对迄今为止发布的17篇威胁评估进行研读分析。[研究结论]通过对历年《美国情报界全球威胁评估》结构布局和威胁内容的演进分析,得出该报告的演进在威胁内容、战略定位和总体布局上的特点,从而进一步探索出科技因素、国际局势和国内政治三个美国威胁评估判断的影响因素。

[Research purpose]Since 2006,the U.S.intelligence community has published 17 reports on the Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S.Intelligence Community.By studying and analyzing the evolution characteristics and motivations,we expect to explore the law of determining the threat priorities of the U.S.and predict the direction and focus of its next concern and take corresponding countermeasures.[Research method]Literature study,scenario combination,comparative analysis,qualitative and quantitative analysis,and induction and summary methods were used to study and analyze the 17 threat assessments published so far.[Research conclusion]Through the analysis of the structure layout and the evolution of the threat content in the past years of the Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S.Intelligence Community,the characteristics of the evolution of the reports in the threat content,strategic positioning and overall layout were summarized,leading to further exploration of the three factors affecting the judgment of the U.S.threat assessment,that is,the scientific and technological factors,the international situation and the domestic politics.