美国开源情报战略调整趋势分析及对我国的影响与应对

Analysis of the Adjustment Trend of the Open-Source Intelligence Strategy in U.S.and Implications for China

[研究目的]在大国博弈日趋激烈的背景下,对美国情报战略中开源情报的转向及其争议进行剖析,研判通用大模型等新技术对其未来的走向具有重要意义。[研究方法]通过考察美国开源情报战略调整路径,揭示开源情报发展“理论+技术+实践”三元互动的底层逻辑与未来趋势,有助于以相对全面、立体的视角理解美国国家情报工作对开源情报的顶层规划和具体实施机制。[研究结论]美国将不断提升开源情报的战略地位,并加强跨机构的、公私合作式的开源情报资源整合,大力推进支撑开源情报活动的底层能力建设。为应对美国这一调整带来的泄密风险和虚假信息风险,缓和信息公开与反开源活动之间的冲突,我国须完善顶层设计和具体实施机制以强化信息保密工作力度,并持续关注技术发展动态,积极推动公私部门合作以提升开源情报水平。

[Research purpose]Under the background of the increasingly fierce game among big powers,it would be of great realistic value to analyze the adjustment trend of open-source intelligence(OSINT)in the U.S.intelligence strategy and related controversies,estimating what impacts new technologies such as the general-purpose large models.[Research method]By examining the adjustment path of the U.S.intelligence strategy involving OSINT,and revealing the underlying logic and future trends driven by the triadic interaction of"theory+technology+practice"in the development of OSINT,the top-level design and the specific paths of open-source intelligence in the U.S.national intelligence could be understood from a comprehensive and three-dimensional perspective.[Research conclusion]The U.S.will continue to uplift the strategic position of OSINT.To be more detailed,it will pay efforts to strengthening the resources integration among public sectors and the public-private sector cooperation of OSINT,and vigorously promoting the underlying capacity building that supports OSINT activities.In order to deal with the risk of information leakage and false information brought by the adjustment made in the U.S.intelligence strategy,and to ease the conflicts between information disclosure and anti-OSINT activities,China should improve its top-level design and strengthen the implementation mechanisms of information security.In addition,attention should continuously be paid to technological developments and actively promote public-private sector cooperation to enhance OSINT.