多维度视角下新兴产业技术演化测度研究——以我国新能源汽车产业为例

Technology Evolution Measurement of Emerging Industries from a Multi-Dimensional Perspective:New Energy Vehicle Industry of China as an Example

[研究目的]对新兴产业技术演化特征进行测度,有助于透视新兴产业技术演进轨迹,进而为产业技术发展提供借鉴。[研究方法]从多维视角构建新兴产业技术演化测度框架。首先,对技术社群进行动态演化识别和可视化,揭示技术演进路径;其次,引入技术熵对技术演化状态进行分类和测度,明晰产业技术演化稳定性;再次,通过关键词-时序分析刻画知识元素演化轨迹,识别产业技术前沿;最后,以产业链视角分析产业技术结构,揭示技术发展重心。[研究结论]以我国新能源汽车产业为例进行实证分析,研究发现:新能源汽车产业关键技术已形成突破性发展,但仍伴随着不均衡性;产业核心技术形成了六大演化路径;知识元素的出现时间、创新频率和创新区间三者密切相关,产业前沿技术创新活跃;随着技术领域的不断细分,产业链不断横向和纵向扩展,产业链重心的过渡及上下游协同助力产业结构的升级发展。

[Research purpose]Measuring the technological evolution characteristics of emerging industries can provide a better understanding of the trajectory of technological evolution within these industries,and can therefore offer valuable insights into the development of industrial technologies.[Research method]This study proposes a multi-dimensional framework for measuring the technological evolution of emerging industries.Firstly,the dynamic evolution of the technical community is identified to delineate the technological evolution path.Secondly,technical entropy is introduced to classify and measure the status of technological evolution,thereby clarifying the stability of industrial technology evolution.Thirdly,the evolution trajectory of knowledge elements is defined through keyword-sequence analysis to identify the frontier of industrial technology.Finally,the industrial technology structure is displayed from the industry chain perspective,which reveals the focus of industrial technology development.[Research conclusion]Using the new energy vehicle industry of China as an example,this research provides empirical evidence that the industry's key technologies have achieved significant progress,while the development has been characterized by a significant imbalance.The core technologies of the industry have undergone six distinct evolutionary paths.The emergence time,frequency,and innovation interval of knowledge elements are closely related.The innovation of frontier technologies in the industry is also highly active.Moreover,the industry chain has continued to expand both horizontally and vertically due to the ongoing subdivision of technical fields.Finally,the focus transition of the industry chain and the synergy between the upstream and downstream sectors have facilitated the upgrading and development of the industrial structure.