中国人工智能智库影响力评价

Evaluation of the Influence of Chinese AI Think Tanks

[研究目的]随着新一轮人工智能浪潮兴起,国内快速涌现出一批服务于人工智能发展的智库,探讨此类智库影响力状况,旨在助力该领域智库发展和智库服务能力提升。[研究方法]基于5W传播模型、创新扩散理论和信息生态理论等,从理论层面确定了影响主体、影响信息、影响渠道、影响对象和外部环境五大智库影响力要素。据此,构建了以决策影响力、学术影响力、社会影响力和国际影响力为一级指标,包含9个二级指标,18个三级指标的指标体系。然后,对26家样本智库的综合影响力和各层次影响力开展评价。[研究结论]我国已经发展起一支体量相当的人工智能智库队伍,可大致划分为4个梯队,队伍整体结构呈现中间大、两头小的特征。各梯队智库的国际影响力均有待提升,第二梯队智库需重点加快提升决策支撑能力和质量,学术研究能力以及服务社会的意识和能力。第三梯队智库特别需要拓展咨政渠道。第四梯队智库各层次影响力均有较大提升空间。

[Research purpose]With the rise of a new wave of artificial intelligence,a number of think tanks serving the development of AI have emerged rapidly in China.This paper discusses the influence of this kind of think tanks in order to provide reference for its development and the improvement of its service capabilities.[Research method]Based on 5W theory,innovation diffusion theory and information ecological theory,this paper firstly identifies five influential factors of think tanks from the theoretical level:influencing subject,influencing information,influencing channel,influencing object and external environment.Then,an indicator system is constructed with decision-making influence,academic influence,social influence and international influence as the first level indicators,including 9 second-level indicators and 18 third-level indicators.Finally,the comprehensive influence and influence at different levels of the 26 sample think tanks are evaluated.[Research conclusion]China has developed a team of AI think tanks of comparable size,which can be roughly divided into four echelons.The overall structure of the team is characterized by large in the middle and small at both ends.The international influence of all echelons of think tanks needs to be improved.The second echelon of think tanks needs to focus on accelerating the improvement of supporting ability and quality of decision-making,academic research ability,and awareness and ability to serve the society.It is particularly necessary for the third tier think tanks to expand their decision-supporting channels.The influence of the fourth tier think tanks at all levels can be improved a lot.