基于博弈论视角的短视频用户信息传播模型及实证研究——以“钟薛高烧不化事件”为例

Empirical Study Using a Model of Short Video User Information Dissemination from the Perspective of Game Theory:Taking the “Zhongxuegao Cannot Be Melt” Incident as an Example

[目的/意义]探究短视频用户的信息传播过程及演化规律有助于相关部门科学认知舆情发展态势,提高舆情危机处理能力。[方法/过程]在传统SEIR模型基础上,考虑网民的观点交互,将传播者分为谣言传播者和信息澄清者。基于此,构建SICR模型,并利用Python爬取抖音平台上关于“钟薛高烧不化”事件的短视频评论进行数据处理和仿真实验,验证模型的适用性。[结果/结论]信息澄清者在舆情爆发期增加发声渠道、占领舆论高地,采取处罚措施严惩谣言传播者,有利于引导事件转为正面讨论,促使真实信息被大众知晓,平息舆论。

[Purpose/significance] Exploring the information dissemination process and evolution law of short video users will help relevant departments to scientifically understand the development trend of public opinion and improve the ability to deal with public opinion crisis.[Method/process] On the basis of the traditional SEIR model,considering the interaction of netizens' views,the communicators are divided into rumor communicators and information clarifiers.Based on this,the SICR model is constructed,and Python is used to crawl the short video comments on the “Zhongxuegao cannot be melt” incident on the Tiktok platform for data processing and simulation experiments to verify the applicability of the model.[Result/conclusion] During the outbreak of public opinion,the information clarifier increases the voice channel,occupies the highland of public opinion,and takes punishment measures to severely punish the rumor disseminator,which is conducive to leading the event to a positive discussion,making the real information known to the public,and calming public opinion.