摘要
青藏高原被称为“亚洲水塔”和“第三极”,青藏高原水资源变化对我国乃至周边众多国家的水资源安全及人民生活均产生深远的影响。利用青藏高原周边103个气象站点及国内外8种卫星遥感与再分析数据,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和相关系数法对1980—2019年青藏高原降水量变化趋势及各数据集适用性进行了研究,利用相关系数(R)、相对误差(BIAS)及均方根误差(RMSE)对这8种卫星遥感与再分析数据适用性进行了评估分析。研究结果表明:①8种降水数据集均能够反映青藏高原降水的空间格局,但精度存在明显差异,其中阳坤的CFMD数据集质量最高,相对误差为13.64%。②多种气象数据均表明近40 a青藏高原整体降水量显著上升的面积为12.8%~69.82%,各降水数据集均在地形较为复杂或降水量较低的干旱地区有着更高的相对误差,此外稀疏的实测站点也对数据集质量影响较大。③近40 a青藏高原66%地区降水量呈上升趋势,中部与北部地区上升趋势显著,而青藏高原东南部雅鲁藏布江、怒江、澜沧江及长江源区下游的降水量则呈显著的下降趋势。④青藏高原各流域降水中黄河源区降水量上升最为快速,上升速率在5 mm/a左右,怒江流域、雅鲁藏布江流域下游地区降水量下降速度最快,达到9 mm/a以上。
The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,renowned as the“water tower of Asia”and the“third pole,”exerts a profound influence on water security and the livelihoods of people in China and neighboring countries.This study examines the changes in water resources on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and their influence.To carry out this analysis,remote sensing and reanalysis data from 103 meteorological stations surrounding the plateau,as well as eight types of satellite remote sensing data from domestic and international sources,are utilized.Linear trend estimation,Mann-Kendall trend tests,and correlation coefficient methods are employed to investigate the trend of precipitation change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1980 to 2019,as well as the suitability of each dataset.The applicability of these eight satellite remote sensing and reanalysis data is assessed by using correlation coefficients(R),relative errors(BIAS),and root mean square errors(RMSE).The findings are as follows:1)the eight precipitation datasets can generally depict the spatial distribution of precipitation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,although significant differences in accuracy exist.Among them,Yang Kun’s CFMD dataset exhibits the highest quality,with a relative error of 13.64%.2)Various meteorological data reveal a significant increase in overall precipitation over the past four decades on the Qinghai Tibet Plateau,covering an area of 12.8%-69.82%.However,arid regions with complex topography or low precipitation display higher relative errors.Additionally,the scarcity of observation stations greatly affects dataset quality.3)During the past four decades,approximately 66%of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau witnessed an upward trend in precipitation,particularly in the central and northern regions.Conversely,the Yarlung Zangbo River,Nujiang River,Lancang River,and the lower reaches in the source region of Yangtze River in the southeastern part of the plateau experienced a significant downward trend.4)Among the plateau’s watersheds,the source area of the Yellow River observed the most rapid increase in precipitation,at a rate of approximately 5 mm/year.Conversely,the Nujiang River Basin and the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin experienced the fastest decrease,exceeding 9 mm/year.
作者
周思儒
信忠保
ZHOU Si-ru;XIN Zhong-bao(College of Water and Soil Conservation,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《长江科学院院报》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第10期186-194,共9页
Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute
基金
“第二次青藏高原综合考察研究”(2019QZKK0608)。
关键词
降水量
时空变化
线性倾向估计
Mann-Kendall趋势检验法
相关系数法
数据适用性
精度评估
青藏高原
precipitation
temporal and spatial variation
linear trend estimation
Mann-Kendall trend tests method
correlation coefficient methods
data applicability
accuracy evaluation
Qinghai-Tibet Plateau