基于模糊评价模型的船舶海上航行风险评估研究

Research on Risk Assessment of Ship Navigation Based on Fuzzy Evaluation Model

为更好地分析船舶海上航行风险指标因素对航行安全的影响,采用模糊综合评估法对船舶航行风险进行评估.从构成船舶海上航行风险指标体系的众多因素入手,在综合考虑外部环境对船舶航行风险影响大小不一的基础上,对风险体系内指标因素之间的关联度进行分析,确认导致船舶海上航行风险的主要影响因素和次要影响因素.分析结果表明,采用基于模糊评价模型的综合评估法,可获得全面和可靠的体系指标因素数据及信息,为海事局监督部门、船公司、船舶制定应急策略和安全航行措施提供理论依据.

In order to better analyze the influence of ship navigation risk index factors on navigation safety,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the ship navigation risk.Starting with the many factors in the ship's maritime navigation risk index system,and on the basis of comprehensively considering the different effects of the external environment on the ship's navigation risk,the correlation degree among the index factors in the risk system is analyzed.the result of the analysis is to confirm the main and secondary factors that lead to the risk of ship navigation at sea.The analysis results show that the comprehensive evaluation method of the fuzzy evaluation model can obtain comprehensive,detailed and reliable system index factor data and information,which provides a theoretical basis for maritime supervision departments,shipping companies and ships to formulate emergency strategies and safe navigation measures.