基于AHP-DEMATEL的海上溢油应急能力评价

Marine Oil Spill Emergency Capability Assessment Based on AHP-DEMATEL Method

海上溢油应急能力评价需考虑多种风险因素相互影响、共同作用的关系.为研究海上溢油应急能力风险关键因素及其相互影响关系,提出基于AHP-DEMATEL的海上溢油应急能力评价方法,建立海上溢油应急能力风险评价模型,设计海上溢油应急能力评价流程,计算得到影响海上溢油应急能力评价的关键因素和各因素综合权重.研究结果表明:现场处理能力、溢油现场反应速度、溢油漂移预测能力、应急反应准备时间和应急队伍素质等为海上溢油应急能力的关键风险因素,需重点建设.研究成果可为提升海上溢油应急能力提供理论参考.

The evaluation of emergency response capability for oil spill at sea needs to consider the mutual influence and joint action of multiple risk factors.In order to study the key factors and their interrelationships in the risk assessment of offshore oil spill emergency capability,an AHP-DEMATEL based offshore emergency capability evaluation method is proposed.A risk assessment model for offshore oil spill emergency capability is established,and a process for evaluating offshore oil spill emergency capability is designed.The key factors that affect the assessment of offshore emergency capability and the comprehensive weights of each factor are calculated;The research results indicate that on-site processing capacity,oil spill response speed,oil spill drift prediction ability,emergency response preparation time,and emergency team quality are key risk factors for offshore oil spill emergency response capabilities,and key construction is needed.The research results can provide theoretical reference for improving the offshore oil spill capacity.