中国大蒜出口增长的驱动因素研究

Research on driving factors of Chinese garlic export growth

大蒜是中国重要的创汇农产品,根据联合国粮食及农业组织(FAO)数据显示,中国大蒜出口量和出口额常年居于世界第一。通过从出口现状、出口贸易结构等方面对中国大蒜出口贸易发展情况深入分析,在运用国际市场占有率、贸易竞争力指数等评价指标对中国大蒜的国际竞争力进行科学评价的基础上,建立恒定市场模型(CMS)分析中国大蒜出口增长的驱动因素。研究结果表明,国际大蒜需求增加是关键因素,其次是竞争力效应,且在不同阶段所起效应存在差异,交叉效应影响相对较小。对此,从建设标准化集约化基地、提高科技创新水平、健全风险评估机制、完善产品质量监管体系等方面提出有效提升中国大蒜国际市场竞争力的对策建议。

Garlic is an important foreign exchange earning agricultural product in China.According to the data of the Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO),China’s garlic export volume and export volume rank first in the world all year round.Through in-depth analysis of the development of China’sgarlic export trade from aspects such as export sta-tus and export trade structure,and using evaluation indicators such as international market share and trade competitive-ness index to scientifically evaluate the international competitiveness of China’s garlic,a CMS model is established to analyze the driving factors of China's garlic export growth.The research results indicate that the increase in international demand for garlic is a key factor,followed by the competitive effect,and the effects vary at different stages,with relative-ly small cross effects.Finally,The article proposes effective countermeasures and suggestions to enhance the competitive-ness of Chinese garlic in the international market,including building standardized and intensive bases,improving techno-logical innovation levels,improving risk assessment mechanisms,and improving product quality supervision systems.