“一带一路”沿线国家对外开放程度测度及影响因素研究

Study on the Measurement and Influencing Factors of the Opening-up Degree of the Countries along the"Belt and Road"

从贸易、金融和投资三个维度构建“一带一路”沿线国家对外开放程度的指标体系,运用熵权TOPSIS法对沿线国家的对外开放程度进行测度,采用系统聚类对沿线国家对外开放程度的等级变化特征进行分析,并运用面板Tobit模型进一步探索影响沿线国家对外开放程度的潜在因素。结果表明:“一带一路”沿线国家对外开放程度较高的主要分布在西亚、东南亚和中东欧地区,较低的主要分布在南亚和东南亚地区;较高和较低等级的国家分布随着时间推移发生一定程度变化;影响“一带一路”沿线国家对外开放程度有多个潜在因素,“一带一路”倡议有助于提升沿线国家的对外开放程度。

The index system of the opening-up degree of the countries along the"Belt and Road"is constructed and measured from the three dimensions of trade,finance and investment.The characteristics of the level change of the degree of opening-up of the countries along the"Belt and Road"are analyzed.The panel Tobit model is used to further explore the potential factors affecting the openness of countries along the"Belt and Road".The results show that the countries with a higher degree of openness along the"Belt and Road"are mainly distributed in West Asia,Southeast Asia and Central and Eastern Europe,while the countries with a lower degree are mainly distributed in South Asia and Southeast Asia.The distribution of countries with higher and lower grades has changed to some extent over time;There are several potential factors that affect the openness of the countries along the"Belt and Road",and the"Belt and Road"Initiative helps to indirectly improve these influencing factors,thus further promoting the openness of the countries along the Road.