铁路桥隧工程技术接口风险因素分析

Risk Factors of Railway Bridge and Tunnel Engineering Technology Interface

为明确施工过程中风险致因及产生路径,有效减少铁路桥隧工程技术接口风险的发生,运用了DEMATEL、ISM和BN相结合的方法,对桥隧工程技术接口的风险因素进行了系统分析。从物理风险、管理者能动风险、环境风险这3个维度提炼了技术接口的风险因素;再利用DEMATEL-ISM组合方法并借助专家知识构建层次网络模型,将其映射到BN中,并将专家判断进一步转化为条件概率分布,以量化技术接口风险系统之间相互依赖关系的强度,确定导致风险发生的主要路径。研究结果表明:导致风险发生最接近的原因路径为X_(16)(团队间协作程度)→X_(8)(沟通渠道不合理,信息传递不畅)→X_(1)(不同单位技术参数、尺寸规范等存在差异)→X 4(工程交接预留、预埋等有误)→X_(2)(工程实体无法衔接或空间位置冲突)→Z;发现技术接口的风险发生概率较高。

In order to clarify the causes and paths of risks in the constructing process and effectively decrease the risk of railroad bridge and tunnel engineering technology interface,the risk factors of bridge and tunnel engineering technology interface were systematically analyzed by using the combination of DEMATEL,ISM and BN.Firstly,the risk factors of technical interface were extracted from three dimensions:physical risk,manager active risk,and environmental risk.Secondly,using the combination method of DEMATEL-ISM and expert knowledge,a hierarchical network model was constructed,which was mapped into BN;and the expert judgment was further transformed into conditional probability distribution to quantify the strength of interdependence between technology interface risk systems and determine the main paths leading to risk occurrence.The research results show that the closest cause path leading to the occurrence of risk is X_(16)(degree of collaboration between teams)→X_(8)(unreasonable communication channels and poor information transfer)→X_(1)(differences in technical parameters and size specifications of different units)→X 4(errors in engineering handover reservation and pre-burial)→X_(2)(engineering entities which cannot be connected or have spatial location conflicts)→Z,and it is found that the probability of risk occurrence of technical interfaces is higher.