美国落实“印太经济框架”的国内政治制约

U.S.Domestic Political Constraints of Implementing Indo-Pacific Economic Framework

“印太经济框架”(IPEF)是拜登政府“印太战略”的重要环节,对于中国周边环境具有重大影响,但同时受到国际、美国国内因素制约。本文认为,尽管IPEF进行了规避国内政治障碍的制度设计,一旦美国政府试图将当前倡议的经济标准扩展和制度化,即“落实”IPEF,很可能受到美国选举政治、政党集团政治的制约。本文在既有国内政治—政策决策传导理论,包括社会运动理论、政党理论和决策博弈模型的基础上提出国内政治影响美国外交政策的两条路径,并通过该框架考察奥巴马政府推动“跨太平洋伙伴关系协定”(TPP)的案例。研究发现,美国国内持保护主义观点的选民、组织通过提升TPP争议在国内中的地位影响政客在相关政策上的立场,导致围绕TPP的争论在竞选中占据重要地位。同时,反对开放市场的政治集团在国会阻挠立法,与国会的政党恶性竞争形成反自由贸易的合力。尽管当前国际环境有助于美国发展海外经济合作,带有保护主义色彩的美国选举和政党集团斗争都将加剧落实IPEF的难度;即使IPEF最终落实,其方案可能带有较强的保护主义色彩,因而失去部分经济吸引力。

As an important part of the Biden administration's"Indo-Pacific Strategy",the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework(IPEF)has a sig⁃nificant impact on China's surrounding environment.However,it is constrained by several international and domestic factors.This study argues that,although IPEF has specifically designed its institutions to circumvent domestic political obstacles,once the U.S.government tries to"implement"IPEF,meaning to expand and institutionalize the economic standards currently advocated,the process is likely to be constrained by electoral politics and party-bloc politics of the U.S.Based on the existing dynamic models between domestic politics and policy decision making,including social movement theory,party-based theories,and decision-making game model,this study proposes two paths for domestic politics to influence US foreign policy,and examines the case of the Obama administration in promoting the Trans-Pacific Partnership(TPP)through this framework.The study found that protectionist voters and organizations in the United States influence politicians'foreign policy positions by influencing domestic elections,causing the TPP debate to occupy an important position during the election campaign.Meanwhile,political blocs opposing open markets blocked legislation in Congress;along with vicious competition between parties in Congress,this led to a joint bipartisan anti-free-trade effort.While the current international envi⁃ronment facilitates U.S.economic cooperation abroad,protectionism in election campaigns and party-bloc struggles will hinder the implementation the IPEF.Even if the framework is eventually implemented,its proposal may be more protectionist and thus lose some of its economic appeal.