看朱成碧:论《欧洲大战史论》中梁启超对“一战”结局的预测

On Liang Qichao's Prediction of the Outcome of World War Ⅰ in A History of European War

1914年夏天“一战”爆发,梁启超于当年11月出版《欧洲大战史论》,分析大战起因、讨论战争责任,并坚定认为德国必胜。从对该书内容的分析以及与同时代学人对战争结局所作预测的对比可知,导致梁启超预测错误的原因,在于他自19世纪末以来对民族帝国主义和社会达尔文主义的深信不疑,以及在此基础上形成的视其为近代国家之完美模范的德国观。“一战”结束后,梁启超转而赞扬中国传统超越狭隘国家主义的天下观与反对军国主义的和平精神。尽管他这种转变是时代思潮影响的结果,却也证明了以军国主义为取向的近代国家主义与民族帝国主义是不适于中国走出困局的。

In the summer of 1914 when World War Ⅰ broke out,Liang Qichao published the treatise A History of European War in November of that year,analyzing the origins of the war and the responsibility for the outbreak of it,and firmly believing that Germany would win the war finally.From content analysis of the book and the comparison of Liang Qichao and other coeval scholars'predictions about the outcome of the war,we can see that the reason for Liang Qichao's misprediction lies in his deep belief in national imperialism and social Darwinism since the end of the 19th century and in his thus-forming view of Germany,which was regarded as the perfect model of modern country.After World War Ⅰ,Liang Qichao turned to praise China's traditional view of the world based on the concept of“Tianxia”which transcends parochial nationalism,and eulogized China's deep-seated peaceful spirit against militarism.Although this change is a reflection of the social thoughts of the times,at least it proves that militarism-oriented modern nationalism and national imperialism are not suitable for China to get out of the difficult position.