江苏省旅游业经济效应及其时空分异研究

A Study on the Economic Effect of Tourism in Jiangsu Province and Its Temporal andSpatial Differentiation

以江苏省为研究区域,利用2007—2019年江苏省及13个地级市的相关数据,从时间、空间维度探讨江苏省13个地市旅游经济发展的总体态势及经济效应分异情况。从时间维度上看,江苏省旅游业依存度始终保持上升趋势,旅游业贡献率波动幅度相对较大,总体呈上升态势;江苏省旅游经济呈现绝对差异不断扩大、相对差异逐渐缩小的趋势。从空间维度上看,苏南和苏中地区旅游总收入是经济增长的Granger原因,旅游业发展对经济增长起到良好的推动作用,无锡和泰州的旅游总收入和经济增长存在双向Granger因果关系;江苏省旅游业对经济发展的拉动效应良好;苏南、苏中、苏北三大地区存在明显的旅游经济效应空间分异现象,同时苏南、苏北地区内部也分别存在旅游经济效应空间分异现象。

Taking Jiangsu Province as the research area,using the relevant data of Jiangsu Province and 13 prefecture-level cities from 2007 to 2019,this paper discusses the overall situation of tourism economic development and the differentiation of economic effects of 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu Province from the time and space dimensions.The results show that:from the perspective of time dimension,the dependence degree of tourism industry in Jiangsu Province has always maintained an upward trend,and the contribution rate of tourism industry fluctuates relatively greatly,showing an overall upward trend.The absolute difference of tourism economy in Jiangsu Province is expanding and the relative difference is narrowing.From the perspective of spatial dimension,the total tourism income in southern and central Jiangsu is the Granger cause of economic growth,and the development of tourism industry plays a good role in promoting economic growth.There is a two-way Granger causality between the total tourism income and economic growth in Wuxi and Taizhou.Jiangsu tourism has a good pull effect on economic development.There is an obvious spatial differentiation of tourism economic effect in southern,central and northern Jiangsu,and there exist spatial differentiation of tourism economic effects within the southern and northern regions of Jiangsu respectively as well.