“一带一路”与东盟“印太展望”的对接及对接路径

The Synergy and Path of“the Belt and Road Initiative”and“the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific”

在“百年未有之大变局”之际,中国与东盟共同肩负维护地区和平、促进地区繁荣的责任。“一带一路”与东盟“印太展望”作为两大地区发展战略,具有极为重要的地区发展战略意义,推动两者对接有利于创造共同利益、解决共性问题、应对别国战略对冲,有望为维护地区和平与稳定、促进地区发展与繁荣注入新的动力,助推中国—东盟命运共同体建设。在具体操作上,由于“一带一路”倡议与“印太展望”对接的内外环境复杂,受多方面因素的影响,面临机遇与挑战并存的局面,要实现两者对接需要中国与东盟的持续努力与建设。两者对接的有利因素突出表现为内在要求相契合、经济基础深厚、政治互信日渐深化、常态化合作机制不断完善、“一带一路”地区认可度的提升;面临的挑战集中体现为美日主导的政治联盟恶化地区环境、东盟成员国认知差异降低了内部的一致性、东盟成员国信任赤字加大了对接难度。在对接路径上,可从以下几方面入手,为有效对接“牵线搭桥”“奠基扩容”,提升对接的可达成性与可持续性。具体来看,以中国—东盟命运共同体为合作理念夯实政治基础,以“自贸区建设”为桥梁加速“互联互通”进程,以“非传统安全合作”为切入点探索双边合作增长点,以“民间交流”为纽带扩大民意基础,以“区域合作机制建设”为依托筑牢机制保障。

Since the world is undergoing major changes unseen in a century,China and ASEAN jointly shoulder the responsibility of maintaining regional peace and promoting regional prosperity.The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)international cooperation and the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific(AOIP)are the two major regional development strategies of China and ASEAN.Promoting the synergy of the two is conducive to creating common interests,solving common problems,and dealing with strategic hedging of other countries.It is expected to inject new impetus into maintaining regional peace and stability,promoting regional development and prosperity,and boosting the construction of a China-ASEAN community of shared future.In specific operations,the internal and external environment for the synergy of the BRI and the AOIP is complex,which is affected by various factors and facing a situation with the coexistence of opportunities and challenges.To achieve the synergy of the two requires the continuous efforts and construction of China and ASEAN.The favourable factors for the synergy are highlighted in the compatibility of internal requirements,solid economic foundation,deepening political mutual trust,continuous improvement of normalized cooperation mechanisms,and increased recognition of the B&R region.The challenges are concentrated in the deterioration of the regional environment by the political alliance led by the United States and Japan,the cognitive differences among ASEAN member states with reduced internal consistency,and the trust deficit of ASEAN member states with increased difficulty of synergy.As for the synergy path,“connecting”and“laying the foundation and expanding capacity”can be effective in improving the achievability and sustainability of synergy.Specifically,it is feasible to take the China-ASEAN Community of Shared Future as the cooperation concept to consolidate the political foundation,conduct the“free trade zone construction”to accelerate the process of“interconnection and interoperability”,and use“non-traditional security cooperation”as the starting point to explore the growth points of bilateral cooperation,adopt“People-to-people exchanges”as a link to expand the base of public opinion and rely on“regional cooperation mechanism construction”to guarantee solid institutional mechanism.