罪与刑的线性不相关:美国大规模监禁罪刑关系的理论迷思

Linear Irrelevance between Crime and Penalty:Theoretical Myths about the Relationship between Mass Imprisonment and Penalty in the United States

一般认为,罪为因,刑为果。理想的罪刑关系应该是高度相关的线性关系。然而,美国半个世纪以来的大规模监禁作为罪刑关系的样本却显示,罪刑之间并不存在如此直接和即时的线性相关。以美国大规模监禁罪刑关系的三个迷思为抓手,本文发现犯罪率的消长只是监禁率变化的因素之一,而不是其全部根据,甚至不是主因。监禁率的变化对于犯罪率的消长而言也并不存在立竿见影的效果,犯罪的潮汐涨落亦受到诸多因素的共同作用,其中的规律还有待进一步探究。现实世界的复杂性注定了罪刑关系的复杂性,直觉式的罪刑关系想象既不符合现实,又会给现实带来不可估量的危害。美国大规模监禁的惨痛教训提醒我们,必须用一种复杂数据模型的思考方式去代替直觉式的罪刑关系想象,只有观念发生变革,才能带来犯罪控制模式的革新。

It is generally believed that penalty is the result of crime.The ideal relationship between crime and penalty should be highly related and linear.However,the large-scale imprisonment in the United States for half a century as a sample of the relationship between crime and penalty shows that there is not such a direct and immediate linear correlation between the two.Starting with the three myths about the relationship between mass imprisonment and penalty in the United States,this paper finds that the growth and decline of the crime rate is only one of the factors for the change of the imprisonment rate,not the whole basis,or even the main cause.The change of imprisonment rate has no immediate effect on the growth and decline of crime rate,and the fluctuation of crime is also affected by many factors,the law of which needs to be further explored.The complexity of the real world is doomed to the complexity of the relationship between crime and penalty.The intuitive imagination of the relationship between the two not only does not accord with the reality,but also brings immeasurable harm to the reality.The painful lesson of mass imprisonment in the United States reminds us that the intuitive imagination of the relationship between crime and penalty must be replaced by a complex data model,and the change of concept can bring about the innovation of crime control mode.