基于复杂网络演化博弈的国家物流枢纽城市竞合关系研究

Research on Competition and Cooperation Relationship of National Logistics Hub Cities Based onCmplex Network Evolutionary Game

国家物流枢纽城市之间因腹地重叠而产生竞合关系,促进国家物流枢纽城市协同发展,对支撑“通道+枢纽+网络”的现代物流体系意义重大。以《国家物流枢纽布局和建设规划》确定的110个主要枢纽城市为研究对象,利用Huff模型划分腹地,进一步根据腹地重叠关系建立国家物流枢纽城市竞合网络并分析该网络的结构特征,采用复杂网络演化博弈方法研究枢纽城市间竞争与合作行为的演化规律和影响因素。结果表明:国家物流枢纽城市间的竞合关系十分紧密与复杂,这种竞合关系随时间不断演变并受到区位因素、功能类型、合作成本、政府补贴等诸多因素影响;单一市场机制下,只有在合作收益大于合作成本时,国家物流枢纽城市之间才会为追求经济效益而自发进行合作并逐渐形成一个稳定的合作联盟,联盟形成的规模和速度还会受到初期枢纽城市合作意愿大小的影响;政府规制下,可通过合作补贴和竞争惩罚两种策略来加强枢纽城市间的合作,但补贴或惩罚力度的增加对联盟形成速度的提升效果并不显著。据此,进一步提出国家物流枢纽城市错位发展与协调联动、组建国家物流枢纽联盟以加强合作共赢、升级物流信息综合平台以打破物流信息壁垒等对策建议,旨在促进枢纽城市协同发展,提高物流综合服务能力。

National logistics hub cities have competition and cooperation relations because of a large number of overlapping hinterland.Promoting the coordinated development of national logistics hub cities is of great significance to support the modern logistics system of“channel+hub+network”.Take the 110 major hub cities identified in the Layout and Construction Planning of National Logistics Hub as the research object,using Huff model to divide the hub city hinterland,and further establish the competition and cooperation network of national logistics hub cities according to the overlapping relationship of hinterland,and analyze the structural characteristics of the network.Finally,the complex network evolutionary game method is used to study the evolution and influencing factors of competition and cooperation behaviors among hub cities.The results show that the competition and cooperation relationship between national logistics hub cities is very close and complex,which evolves over time and is affected by many factors such as location factors,types,cooperation costs and government subsidies.Under the single market mechanism,only when the cooperation benefit is greater than the cooperation cost,the national logistics hub cities will spontaneously cooperate in pursuit of economic benefits and gradually form a stable cooperation alliance.In particular,the scale and speed of alliance formation will also be affected by the cooperation willingness of the initial hub cities.Under the government regulation,the cooperation between hub cities can be strengthened through two strategies:cooperation subsidy and competition punishment.However,the increase of subsidy or punishment intensity has no significant effect on the improvement of alliance formation speed.Accordingly,some suggestions are put forward,such as the dislocation development of national logistics hub cities,the formation of national logistics hub alliance to strengthen win-win cooperation,and the upgrading of logistics information comprehensive platform to realize information sharing.These suggestions will help promote the coordinated development of hub cities and improve the integrated logistics service capacity.