杭州市三江汇地区森林植被固碳抵消能源排放能力评估及情景预测研究

Assessment and Scenario Prediction of the Offsetting Effect of Forest Carbon Sequestration on the Energy Carbon Emission in Sanjianghui Area of Hangzhou

森林植被固碳服务是生态系统服务评估的重要内容之一,在区域碳中和发挥着重要的碳汇作用。以生物量法和CASA模型法相结合,评估杭州市三江汇地区森林植被固碳能力;采用CEADs县级碳排放清单估算三江汇地区的能源碳排放量;综合碳汇和碳排评估该地区森林植被固碳对能源碳排放量的抵消率。从碳减排和增汇2个方面,对森林植被抵消能源碳排放的能力进行未来情景预测。研究结果表明:1)2017年三江汇地区森林植被固碳量为4.98×10^(4)t,能源碳排放量为2.07×10^(6)t,森林植被能源碳排放的抵消率为2.41%,三江汇森林植被能源碳抵消率呈现出“东低西高、北低南高”的空间格局;2)研究设置9个情景对2030年森林植被碳抵消率进行定量预测,预测结果显示研究区森林植被面积增加有利于提升森林植被对能源碳排放量的抵消能力,森林面积每增加5%,森林植被对能源碳排放量抵消率可提高0.12%~0.29%;减少人均能源碳排放对提高森林植被碳抵消能力的效果更为显著,人均能源碳排由2.77t/人降低为0.90和0.72t/人,森林植被碳抵消率可分别提高2.21%~2.43%和3.36%~3.94%。定量评估区域森林植被固碳能力对能源碳排放量的抵消作用及其预测研究,能为未来杭州市三江汇地区及其他地区的“碳中和”目标实现和区域可持续发展提供科学依据和案例参考。

Carbon sequestration of forest vegetation is one of the most important contents of ecosystem service assessment,which plays an important role in regional carbon neutralization.In this study,the biomass method and the CASA model method were combined to evaluate the carbon sequestration capacity of forest vegetation in the Sanjianghui area of Hangzhou.The county-level carbon emission inventory from CEADS was used to estimate the energy carbon emission in the Sanjianghui area.Then,the offset rate of the forest vegetation to the energy carbon emission was evaluated in the study area.Combining the reduction of carbon emission and the increasement of carbon sequestration,a future scenario prediction was made to evaluate the ability of forest vegetation to offset the energy carbon emissions.The results show that:1)In 2017,the amount of forest vegetation carbon sequestration was 4.98×10^(4)t,the amount of energy carbon emission was 2.07×10^(6)t,and the energy carbon emission offset rate of forest vegetation was 2.41%.The energy carbon emission offset of forest vegetation in Sanjianghui area presented a spatial pattern of"low in the east and south,and high in the west and north".2)The study set up 9 scenarios to quantitatively predict the carbon offset rate of forest vegetation in 2030.The prediction results showed that the increase of forest vegetation area in the study area improved the offset ability of forest vegetation to energy carbon emissions.For every 5%increase in forest area,the offset rate of forest vegetation on energy carbon emissions is 0.12%~0.29%.In the scenario of reducing carbon emissions,the offset rate of forest vegetation on energy carbon emissions increased by 2.21%~2.43%and 3.36%~3.94%,respectively.This study quantitatively assessed and predicted the carbon offset effect of regional forest vegetation carbon sequestration capacity on energy carbon emissions,which could provide scientific basis for the realization of the"carbon neutrality"goal and regional sustainable development in the Sanjianghui area of Hangzhou and illustrate case reference for other regions.