基于层次分析法的市政道路投资风险分析方法

Risk Analysis Method of Municipal Road Investment Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

传统市政道路投资风险分析方法在计算投资风险因素序值中,多数采用单风险因素计算的方式,序值计算精度不足,导致投资风险分析与评估结果的准确率较低。基于此,引入层次分析法,提出了一种全新的投资风险分析方法。首先,分解市政道路项目投资风险结构,识别投资风险因素,获取投资风险目标层、标准层与指标层,建立市政道路投资风险矩阵,全方位衡量风险的重要性级别,利用层次分析法计算投资风险因素等级量化序值,从大到小排列序值计算结果,判断风险因素重要性,进而分析并评估投资风险。以S市政道路项目为例进行实例分析可知,通过提出方法分析市政道路投资风险,投资风险评价指标白化权灰色聚类权重值较高,均在0.4以上,分析结果准确性较高。

Most ofthe traditional municipal road investment risk analysis methods use the single risk factor calculation method in calculating the order value of investment risk factors.The calculation accuracy of the order value is insufficient,which leads to the low accuracy of investment risk analysis and evaluation results.Based on this,a new investment risk analysis method is proposed by introducing analytic hierarchy process.First of all,decompose the municipal road structure of project investment risk,identify the investment risk factors,access to investment risk target layer,criterion layer and index layer,build municipal road investment risk matrix,measure the importance level of risk,use the analytic hierarchy process(ahp)to calculate the quantitative order value of investment risk factors,order the values from largest to smallest and calculate the result,judge risk factor importance,then analyze and evaluate the investment risk.Taking S municipal road project as an example,it can be seen that through the proposed method to analyze the investment risk of municipal road,the investment risk evaluation index whitening weight gray clustering weight value is higher,all above 0.4,and the accuracy of the analysis result is higher.