长江经济带碳排放时空特征及成因分析

Spatial characteristics and causes of carbon emission in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

研究碳排放的时空特征一直是碳排放领域的重要议题,对实现“双碳”战略目标具有重要意义。文章基于2005年、2010年、2015年、2020年四年数据,利用自然断点、趋势分析和地理探测器模型,对长江经济带碳排放时空分布特征及其影响因素进行分析。研究发现:(1)长江经济带碳排放总量逐年上升,局部区域已实现“碳达峰”;(2)长江经济带碳排放空间分布具有东高西低、南高北低的特征,且其空间布局存在明显异质性,空间分布合理化短期难以实现;(3)区域碳排放的空间布局成因复杂,经济、能源强度、人口影响效应依次递减,其中经济是碳排放空间布局的核心驱动因素。研究旨在为长江经济带碳减排规划制定和精准施策提供参考。

The study of the temporal and spatial characteristics of carbon emissions has always been an important research topic in the field of carbon emissions,which has an important impact on the realization of the “two-carbon” strategy.Based on the data from 2005,2010,2015,and 2020,this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and explores the driving factors of the spatial distribution in the Yangtze River Economic Belt by using methods like natural break point method,trend analysis,and geographic detector.The following conclusions are drawn.Firstly,the spatial distribution of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is significantly different,and the rationalization of carbon emissions distribution is difficult to achieve in the short term.Secondly,the causes of the spatial distribution of regional carbon emissions are complex,and the economy is the core factor of spatial differences in carbon emissions.The research deepens the understanding of carbon emissions and forms the following countermeasures.Local governments have firmly implemented the “dual-carbon” strategy and formulated differentiated low-carbon policies according to their localities.Meanwhile,targeted intervention in influencing factors of carbon emissions to promote high-quality economic development.