房地产税区域政策差异对居民收入差距的逆向影响——基于双重差分法(DID)的模拟分析

The Reverse Effect of Regional Policy Difference of Real Estate Tax on Residents′ Income Gap——simulation analysis based on Dual Difference (DID)method

房地产税作为今后税制改革的重要内容,对于调节居民收入差距具有重要意义。研究将房地产税改革视为一次自然实验,以2011年进行试点改革的重庆、上海为实验组,运用双重差分法探讨两地不同的试点政策对居民收入差距的影响。结果表明,重庆在试点改革中显著缩小了居民收入差距,而上海的政策效果不佳。因此,鉴于上海、重庆两市经济水平的差异,应依据“因地制宜、因地施策”原则设计房地产税税制结构,并根据市场评估价格确定计税依据,同时税收优惠要兼顾免税面积和特殊人群,从而持续推进房地产税改革。

As an important part of the future tax reform,real estate tax is of great significance to adjust the income gap of residents.The real estate tax reform is regarded as a natural experiment.Chongqing and Shanghai,which carried out pilot reforms in 2011,are taken as experimental groups.The impact of different pilot policies on residents′ income gap is discussed by using the differential difference method.The results showed that Chongqing significantly narrowed the income gap of residents in the pilot reform,while Shanghai's policy was not effective.Therefore,in view of the difference in economic levels between Shanghai and Chongqing,the structure of the real estate tax system should be designed according to the principle of “adopting policies according to local conditions”,and the tax basis should be determined according to the market assessment price.Meanwhile,tax incentives should take into account the exemption area and special groups so as to continuously promote the reform of the real estate tax.