珠江流域北江“2022.6”特大洪水预报分析

Analysis the catastrophic flood forecast of Beijiang Riverof Pearl River Basin in June 2022

2022年6月珠江发生两次流域性较大洪水,北江出现特大洪水。洪水期间,水文情报预报为流域防汛指挥、水库群联合调度提供了较为准确及时的决策依据,取得了良好的社会效益和经济效益。通过阐述分析2022年6月北江特大洪水过程,及时总结本次洪水预报预警工作和存在的不足之处,为进一步做好流域洪水防御及水库群联合调度的水情预报预警工作提供参考。分析结果表明,根据包括飞来峡水库、乐昌峡水库等11个站点编制的北江河系洪水预报方案应用能够满足流域防洪调度需求,但存在受预报降雨误差影响导致预见期不长、个别断面方案因模型误差导致洪水过程预报不理想等问题,应及时根据最新雨水情监测资料开展滚动预报,并加强重要水库的实时流量监测和入库洪水预报方案修编。

In June 2022,there were two basin-wide larger floods happened in the Pearl River basin and one catastrophic flood happened in the Beijiang River of the basin.The work of hydrological information delivery and flood forecast provided accurate and timely decision-making basis for the flood command of the basin during those floods,and the joint operation of the reservoir group had achieved good social and economic benefits.This paper describes and analyzes the Beijiang catastrophic flood process in June 2022,summarizes the flood forecast and early warning work and the existing deficiencies.It may provide some useful references for further improving the flood forecast and early warning work on the prevention of the basin-wide flood during joint operation of reservoir group.The result shows that the flood forecast scheme which is compiled by 11 stations of Beijiang River including Feilaixia Reservoir and Lechangxia Reservoir can meet the flood dispatching requirements of the basin.But there are some problems such as the short forecast period due to the impact of the forecast rainfall error,and the poor flood process forecast due to the model error in some section schemes,so the rolling forecast should be carried out in time according to the latest observed data.In addition,we shall give more attention to the real-time flow monitoring of the important reservoirs and the revision of the inflow flood forecast plan.