南美“锂三角”资源供应形势分析——“锂佩克”格局对全球及中国的影响

Supply Situation Analysis on South America"Lithium Triangle"Resources——The Impact of the"Lithium OPEC"Pattern on the World and China

阿根廷、玻利维亚、智利等3个国家形成的南美“锂三角”希望在仿效石油“欧佩克”基础上建立“锂佩克”,以增强在全球锂产业供应链中的优势地位和话语权。从资源供应看,其“锂佩克”具备国际优势,其锂矿勘查投入占全球锂矿勘察总投入的21.7%,锂矿储量占全球锂矿储量的46.1%,锂矿产量占全球锂矿产量的34.3%,同时也是我国锂进口的最大来源地。从国际影响力看,“锂佩克”在战略地位、控产效果、价格影响力等方面无法与“欧佩克”相媲美,因此掌控全球锂资源定价话语权的可能性有限,最多只能实现区域内信息共享、政策协调、产业配合等目标。我国已成为全球最大的锂消费国和进口国。作为我国锂进口的最大来源地,南美“锂三角”拟建的“锂佩克”将对我国锂产业链供应链安全构成直接挑战。为应对潜在的不利影响,建议科学评估全球锂市场供需态势,分析国内锂产业链存在的问题,从勘查开采、回收储备、互补合作、企业投资等方面着手,有效保障我国锂资源供应。

The South American"lithium triangle"formed by Argentina,Bolivia,Chile,and three other countries hopes to establish"lithium OPEC"based on imitating Petroleum"OPEC"to enhance the dominant position and voice in the global lithium industry supply chain.From the perspective of resources supply,its"lithium OPEC"has international advantages,its lithium exploration investment accounts for 21.7%of the total investment in global lithium exploration,lithium reserves account for 46.1%of global lithium reserves,lithium ore production accounts for 34.3%of global lithium ore production,and it is also the largest source of lithium imports in China.From the perspective of international influence,such as strategic position,production control effect,and price influence,"Lithium OPEC"can not be compared with"OPEC",so the possibility of controlling the global lithium resource pricing discourse is limited,and at most,it can only achieve regional information sharing,policy coordination,industrial cooperation,and other goals.China has become the world's largest lithium consumer and importer.As the largest source of China's lithium imports,the"lithium OPEC"proposed by the"lithium triangle"in South America will pose a direct challenge to the security of China's lithium industry chain supply chain.In order to cope with the potential adverse impact,it is recommended to scientifically evaluate the supply and demand situation of the global lithium market,analyze the problems existing in the domestic lithium industry chain,and effectively guarantee the supply of lithium resources in China from the aspects of exploration and exploitation,recovery and reserve,complementary cooperation,and enterprise investment.