汇率制度变迁如何影响企业出口贸易?

How Does Exchange Rate Regime Alteration Affect Firm’s Export Trade?

基于对称开放两国模型的一般均衡分析框架,采用中国贸易企业的微观数据,研究中国与贸易伙伴国双边事实汇率制度安排影响企业出口贸易的微观机制。研究表明:一方面,固定汇率制度通过降低风险提升了所有企业出口,即存在正向规模效应;另一方面,固定汇率制度阻碍了生产要素从低效率企业流向高效率企业,不利于高效率企业出口,即存在负向结构效应。一旦企业生产效率超过一定阈值,负向结构效应会超过正向规模效应,浮动汇率反而更有益于国际贸易增长。因此,从国际贸易平稳发展角度看,相对于汇率制度改革,企业生产率水平提升才是更根本的因素。

Based on a general equilibrium analysis framework of symmetric and open two-country model and micro data of China’s trade firms,this paper analyzes how de facto bilateral exchange rate system affects the export trade of Chinese firms.On the one hand,fixed exchange rate system can boost the export volume of all trade firms by reducing risks,namely the positive scale effect.On the other hand,fixed exchange rate system can prevent production factors moving from inefficient firms to efficient ones,which is not conducive to the export volume of efficient firms,namely the negative structure effect.Once firms’productivity surpasses the threshold value,the negative structure effect will exceed the positive scale effect,and the floating exchange rate is more conducive to the growth of international trade.Therefore,from the perspective of stable development of international trade,compared to the reform of exchange rate system,the improvement of firms’productivity is a more fundamental factor.