外需冲击、农产品“出口转内销”和企业绩效:来自涉农企业的微观证据

External Demand Shock,“Transfer to Domestic Sales”of Agricultural Exports and Firm Performance:Microscopic Evidence from Agricultural Firms

入世以来,我国农产品出口贸易迅速增长,但需求端的挑战亦不容忽视。作为重要的农业主体和出口部门,涉农企业的“出口转内销”决策对消解外需冲击、促进农业升级有着重要意义。识别了外需冲击下涉农企业出口与内销间的替代关系,同时检验了“出口转内销”是否存在产品和企业异质性,并考察了“出口转内销”对企业经济绩效的影响。研究发现:涉农企业在外需冲击下存在“出口转内销”行为,1%的出口下降平均会引起0.366%的内销上升;“出口转内销”在不同产品与企业间存在异质性,原料产品和内向产品(如简单产品、面向东部膳食区产品)更容易转内销,而外资企业和小规模企业转型效率高于国有和大规模企业;外需冲击会造成涉农企业经济绩效下滑,但农产品“出口转内销”可以在一定程度上缓解外需冲击产生的负面影响。

China’s agricultural exports have been rapidly increasing since entering the WTO,yet the challenge from the demand side cannot be ignored.As vital agricultural subjects and export sectors,the“Transfer to Domestic Sales”decision of agricultural firms plays an important part in eliminating external demand shock and upgrading agriculture.This paper identifies the substitution relationship between exports and domestic sales of agricultural firms under external demand shock,tests whether there’s product and firm heterogeneity in“Transfer to Domestic Sales”,and recognizes its effect on firm’s economic performance.The results show that under external demand shock,agricultural firms transfer exports to domestic sales,a 1%decline in exports leads to a 0.366%increase in domestic sales.This transfer is heterogeneous among different products and firms,raw materials and“introvert”products such as those with simplicity or oriented to the eastern dietary areas are easier to transfer,and the transfer efficiency of FDI firms and small firms is higher than state-owned firms and large firms.The external demand shock will hurt firm performance,while“Transfer to Domestic Sales”can alleviate the negative impact to a certain extend.