全球陆地风能发电潜力的历史变化及未来预测

Historical Trend and Future Projections of Global On-shore Wind Power Generation Potential

根据全球陆地范围内的风速、风功率密度和温度等1981—2020年的历史数据,通过建立空间回归模型,预测2021—2100年不同减排情景下全球风能发电潜力和风功率密度的变化情况,结果表明,1981—2020年,全球风能发电潜力和风功率密度呈现下降的趋势,而全球温度呈现上升的趋势,两者存在一定程度的相关性。简单线性回归模型结果显示,各大洲的年均发电潜力与全球11个地区的平均温度有较好的相关性,且大部分区域都呈现负相关关系。未来不同共享社会经济路径(SSPs)情景下,全球总的年风能发电潜力会有较明显的差异。在温度上升最快的SSP5-8.5情景下,21世纪末的发电潜力比2020年代下降3.3%;在减排力度最高的情景SSP1-1.9下,全球年发电潜力会随着温度的下降而回升,有望在21世纪末回到21世纪初的发电潜力。与最优情景SSP1-1.9相比,其他SSPs情景下,大部分(61%)网格化的风功率密度表现出下降趋势,且温度上升越快,风功率密度值下降越多,未来可实现风能发电的潜力越小。

By constructing simple linear regression model in space,global wind power generation potential and wind power density during 2021-2100 are predicted based on the historical data in 1981-2020 including wind speed,wind power density and annual average surface temperature from 1981 to 2020.From 1981 to 2020,the global wind power generation potential and wind power density show a declining trend,whereas the global annual average surface temperature shows an increasing trend,and there is a certain degree of correlation between the two trends.The results of simple linear regression models show that the mean of yearly total continental power generation potential and the annual average surface temperature in 11 regions are well correlated,negatively in most regions.Under different shared socio-economic pathways(SSPs)in the future,there will be large differences in the global total annual average on-shore wind power generation potential.Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario with the fastest temperature rise,by the end of this century,global total on-shore wind power generation potential will be reduced by 3.3%relative to the level in 2020.By contrast,under the SSP1-1.9 scenario with the highest carbon emission reduction,global total on-shore wind power generation potential is likely returning to the level in 2020 as global annual average surface temperature falls in the second half of this century.Compared with the best scenario SSP1-1.9,the wind power density is decreasing on 61%of global lands under the other SSP scenarios.The faster the temperature is rising in a SSP scenario,the more the wind power density values will decline,and the less the potential of wind power generation will be achieved in the future.