气候变化对空气污染影响的模拟研究

Modeling Study on the Impact of Climate Change on Air Pollution

为了评估气候变化对空气污染影响机制研究中各类模式方案,更好地理解现有的研究结果,为未来进一步的模式研究提供支持,梳理“气候变化对空气污染影响”主题相关的各类模式研究,识别出全球和区域两类不同空间尺度下的3类模式研究,对比不同研究的方法特点和适用性。进一步地,使用CMIP5气候模式比较项目数据和WRF-Chem大气化学传输模式,研究气候变化背景下气象变化和污染物排放变化对2050年中国夏季近地面O3浓度的影响,并重点选取京津冀、长三角和珠三角3个地区进行分析。结果表明,在RCP8.5的气候变化和污染物排放增长情景下,气象和排放变化都将对本世纪中叶中国夏季臭氧浓度产生较明显的影响。在中国大部分区域,排放变化对臭氧浓度的影响较大,但东海附近地区气象场的影响也非常显著。此外,两类因素之间存在一定程度的相互影响。

Evaluating the schemes and characteristics of models that are applied in studying the mechanism of how climate change would impact air pollution is key to providing a better understanding of the current studies and supporting modeling research in the future.This study reviews existing modeling studies on the topic“climate change impact on air pollution”based on literature investigation.Three types of modeling studies at different spatial scales-global and regional-are identified,and the characteristics and applicability of different research methods are compared.Furthermore,using data from the CMIP5 climate model intercomparison project and the atmospheric chemical transport model WRF-Chem,the impacts of future changes in meteorology and pollutant emissions in the context of climate change on near-surface summertime O3 concentration in China in 2050 are studied,with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,Yangtze River Delta region,and Pearl River Delta region selected as representatives for analysis.Results show that under the RCP8.5 climate change and emission pathway,both meteorological and emission changes will impose significant effects on summer ozone concentrations in China by the middle of this century.In most regions of China,changes in emissions would have a significant influence on ozone concentration,but the meteorological field near the East China Sea would also significantly affect future ozone pollution.In addition,a certain degree of interaction between the two factors exists.