摘要
目前,我国天然橡胶资源安全问题日益突出,开展天然橡胶生产动态监测具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。本研究基于长面板数据集综合应用生产规模指数、生产集中度指数、生产重心分析法、效率比较优势、规模比较优势和综合比较优势等模型测算,研究1995—2020年我国天然橡胶空间分布特征及演变规律。结果表明:1995—2020年我国天然橡胶生产布局逐渐向云南和海南集中,2020年云南和海南两省合计的生产集中度指数达97.87%,云南已超越海南成为我国最具比较优势的植胶区,海南依然属于比较优势区域;同时,空间重心明显向西北方向移动,广东、广西和福建三省(区)的比较劣势更加突出。未来,基于多因子多尺度的空间统计分析研究方法,将成为天然橡胶生产布局时空演变和预测研究的重要发展方向。
At present,the safety of natural rubber resources in China is becoming increasingly prominent.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to carry out dynamic monitoring of natural rubber production.Based on the long-panel data set,the spatial distribution characteristics,and evolution of natural rubber in China from 1995 to 2020 were studied by using production scale index,production concentration index,production gravity analysis method,effi-ciency advantage index,scale advantage index and aggregated advantage index in this paper.The results showed that the distribution of natural rubber production in China gradually concentrated to Yunnan and Hainan from 1995 to 2020,and the production concentration index of Yunnan and Hainan reached 97.87%in 2020.Yunnan surpassed Hainan to become the most comparative advantage rubber planting area in China,and Hainan belonged to the comparative advantage area.At the same time,the spatial center of gravity moved to the northwest obviously,and the comparative disadvan-tages of Guangdong,Guangxi and Fujian were more prominent.In the future,the spatial statistical analysis method based on multi-factor and multi-scale would become an important development direction of the research on the spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of natural rubber production distribution.
作者
李海亮
戴声佩
郑倩
王祥军
禹萱
胡盈盈
罗红霞
LI Hailiang;DAI Shengpei;ZHENG Qian;WANG Xiangjun;YU Xuan;HU Yingying;LUO Hongxia(Institute of Scientific and Technological Information,Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Applied Research on Tropical Crop Information Technology of Hainan Province,Haikou,Hainan 571101,China;College of Ge-ography and Environmental Sciences,Hainan Normal University,Haikou,Hainan 571158,China;Rubber Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences,Haikou,Hainan 571101,China)
出处
《热带作物学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第9期1925-1933,共9页
Chinese Journal of Tropical Crops
基金
海南省自然科学基金项目(No.621RC628)
海南省重点研发计划(高新技术)项目(No.ZDYF2021GXJS215)。
关键词
天然橡胶
生产布局
时空演变
空间重心
面板数据
natural rubber
production distribution
spatiotemporal evolution
center of gravity
panel data