跨境电商综试区设立的贸易促进效应研究——基于地级市数据的双重差分检验

Trade Promotion Effect of the Establishment of Cross-border E-Commerce Comprehensive Pilot Zone:Based on DID Model at Prefecture-level Cities

跨境电商综试区是我国通过区域先行先试推动高水平开放的重要体现,也是结合新发展格局推进数字贸易的有效路径,科学评估跨境电商综试区的贸易影响具有重要的现实意义。文章基于2010—2020年中国城市面板数据,将设立跨境电商综试区作为一项准自然实验,利用双重差分法检验了跨境电商综试区设立的贸易促进效应,得到如下结论:首先,跨境电商综试区的设立显著扩大了城市的进出口规模,该结论在经过多种稳健性检验之后仍然成立。其次,城市物流体系完善、信息化建设推进以及跨境贸易企业集聚,是跨境电商综试区促进贸易发展的重要机制。最后,异质性分析显示,跨境电商综试区对于经济基础较弱和内陆城市的贸易促进效应更加明显,具有包容性增长效应。

The cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zone is an important embodiment of China's strategy of promoting openness through regional pilot projects,and it is also an effective way to promote local cross-border e-commerce trade in combination with local development needs.Based on the panel data of Chinese cities from 2011 to 2020,this paper examines the trade promotion effect of the establishment of cross-border e-commerce pilot zones as a quasi-natural experiment using the double difference method,and obtains the following conclusions.First,the establishment of cross-border e-commerce pilot zones significantly expands the city's import and export scale.This finding still holds after various robustness tests.Second,the improvement of the city's logistics system,the promotion of information technology construction and the clustering of cross-border trade enterprises are important mechanisms for the cross-border e-commerce pilot zones to promote trade development.Finally,the heterogeneity analysis shows that the trade promotion effect of cross-border e-commerce pilot zones is more obvious for cities with weaker economic bases and inland cities,and it has an inclusive growth effect.