近地小行星撞击风险等级划分方法

Grading Method for Impact Risk of Near-Earth Asteroids

风险等级研究是应对近地小行星撞击地球的重要前提。针对近地小行星撞击风险预估问题,提出一种新型的风险等级划分方法。分析了近地小行星撞击的危害形式与严重后果,并梳理了撞击风险等级划分的要素;探讨了相对成熟的都灵指数模型和巴勒莫指数模型,并以等效直径与撞击概率为主要考虑因素,设计了撞击风险等级划分方案,建立风险等级精细划分模型;针对不同风险等级模型,进行了仿真对比与分析,验证了方法的有效性;实现了在近地小行星等效直径和撞击概率的整个值域范围内连续描述撞击风险。

Research on the grading of impact risk is an important prerequisite to dealing with the danger of impacts by nearasteroids.In this paper,a new risk-grading method was proposed to estimate the risk of near-Earth asteroid impact.The hazard forms and consequences of near-Earth asteroid impact were analyzed,and the factors of impact risk classification were sorted out.The relatively mature Torino scale model and Palermo index model were discussed,and the equivalent diameter and impact probability were taken as the main factors to design the impact risk grading method.A refinement of partition model of risk grade was established.Finally,the simulation comparison and analysis were carried out for different risk grading models.