经济政策不确定性、ESG评级与分析师预测准确度

Economic Policy Uncertainty,ESG Ratings and Analyst Forecast Accuracy

选用2012—2021年沪深A股非金融上市公司作为研究样本,探讨经济政策不确定性是否会影响分析师预测准确度,以及ESG评级在经济政策存在不确定性时对分析师预测准确度之间的关系中所起的作用。研究结果表明,经济政策不确定性越高,分析师预测准确度越低,且上市公司较优的ESG评级水平会缓冲经济政策不确定性对分析师预测准确度的负向影响。进一步研究发现,分析师预测准确度的下降表现为分析师会做出更加乐观的盈余预测,在影响机制分析中发现,更为良好的内部控制质量和更高的媒体关注度能够缓解经济政策不确定性带给分析师预测准确度的负向影响,最后从政府和监管者、上市公司、证券分析师3个方面提出相应对策建议。

The A-share non-financial listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2012 to 2021 were selected as research samples to explore whether economic policy uncertainty affects analysts’forecast accuracy,and the role of ESG ratings in the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and analysts’forecast accuracy.The results show that the higher the uncertainty of economic policy,the lower the accuracy of analysts’forecasts,and the better ESG rating level of listed companies will buffer the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on analysts’forecast accuracy.It is further found that the decline in analysts’forecast accuracy is reflected in the fact that analysts will make more optimistic earnings forecasts.In the influence mechanism analysis,it is found that better internal control quality and higher media attention can alleviate the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on analysts’forecast accuracy,and finally corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from three aspects:governments and regulators,listed companies and securities analysts.