基于LMDI模型和Tapio的城市碳排放驱动因素和脱钩状态研究——以青岛市为例

Driving Factors and Decoupling State of Urban Carbon Emission Based on LMDI Model and Tapio: A Case Study of Qingdao City

城市贡献了我国绝大部分二氧化碳排放量,找出不同城市的二氧化碳驱动因素对低碳发展政策的制定以及实现碳减排至关重要。以青岛市为例,采用LMDI模型对导致碳排放量变化驱动因素进行研究,建立Tapio脱钩模型对青岛市碳排放和能源强度与经济增长的脱钩关系进行分析。研究表明:1)经济发展水平和人口规模对碳排放增长具有驱动作用,其中经济发展水平是主要驱动力,人口规模效应驱动作用较小;2)能源强度作为抑制碳排放的主导因素对碳减排的贡献最为突出,然其抑制作用有逐渐减弱的趋势;3)能源结构的调整有效抑制了碳排放增长,与煤炭在能源消耗中占比的调整有关,且抑制作用有不断增强的趋势;4)碳排放量的变化与经济增长之间基本实现脱钩,能源强度与经济增长之间实现强脱钩。

Cities contribute the vast majority of carbon dioxide emissions in the country,and identifying the drivers of carbon dioxide in different cities is crucial for lowcarbon development policies and carbon reduction.Taking Qingdao as an example,LMDI model was used to study the driving factors leading to the change of carbon emissions,and Tapio decoupling model was established to analyze the decoupling relationship among carbon emissions,energy intensity and economic growth in Qingdao.The results show that:1)Economic development level and population size have driving effects on carbon emission growth,in which economic development level is the main driving force,while population size effect has a small driving effect;2)Energy intensity,as the leading factor to curb carbon emissions,has the most prominent contribution to carbon emission reduction,but its inhibitory effect tends to gradually weaken;3)The adjustment of energy structure effectively inhibits the growth of carbon emissions,which is related to the adjustment of the proportion of coal in energy consumption,and the inhibition effect has a trend of increasing;4)Basically decouple the change of carbon emissions from economic growth,and realize strong decoupling between energy intensity and economic growth.