变化环境下基于回归分析的非一致性水文频率计算方法

Inconsistent hydrological frequency calculation method based onregression analysis under changing environment conditions

基于非一致性水文频率计算原理的频率计算方法,存在确定性成分参数选取主观性强,无法反映多影响要素的问题。提出了变化环境下基于回归分析的非一致性水文频率计算方法,将该方法应用在鄱阳湖水位非一致性频率计算中。结果表明:鄱阳湖年均水位序列呈现出下降的趋势,枯水期出现的频率有所提升,重现期缩短,导致鄱阳湖干旱情况频发。分析结果与鄱阳湖实际的水位状况较为一致,该方法具有较好的可行性和可靠性。

The deficiency of frequency calculation methods based on the inconsistent hydrological frequency calculation principle,such as the subjective selection of deterministic component parameters,single hydrological series analysis and so on.The inconsistent hydrological frequency calculation method based on regression analysis under changing environment conditions was put forward.The inconsistent frequency calculation of water level of Poyang Lake was analyzed by this method,and the results showed that the average annual water level series tended to be decreasing in the Poyang Lake,the frequency of dry periods occurrence was increasing,and the recurrence period was cutting down,which led to more frequent drought in Poyang Lake.The results above show consistency with the actual water level variation,so the method has good feasibility and reliability.