光储项目成本效益模型及平价上网预测研究

STUDY ON COST-BENEFIT MODEL AND GRID PARITY PREDICTION OF PHOTOVOLTAIC ENERGY STORAGE POWER PROJECT

为科学、准确地确定光储项目的经济性和平准化度电成本(LCOE),考虑技术进步、政策调控等因素的影响建立光储项目成本效益模型、LCOE模型以及系统动力学仿真模型。以河北省光储开发项目为案例,分别在有无补贴的情况下应用模型,对光储项目LCOE、内部收益率和综合效益等指标进行仿真分析。选取青海省、云南省光储开发项目做对比研究,测算出光储项目在上述3省中实现平价上网的不同临界点。所建模型可用于分析光储项目成本效益、测算LCOE值、预测光储发电实现平价上网的初始年份。

It is especially urgent to calculate the cost and benefit of photovoltaic energy storage power project accurately.In order to scientifically and accurately determine the economic and levelized cost of energy(LCOE)of photovoltaic energy storage power project,in this paper,the cost benefit model,LCOE model and system dynamics simulation model of photovoltaic energy storage power project are established considering the influence of technological progress and policy regulation.Taking the photovoltaic energy storage power project in Hebei province as an example,the LCOE,internal rate of return and comprehensive benefit of the photovoltaic energy storage power project are simulated and analyzed by using the model with or without subsidies.It also selects the photovoltaic energy storage power projects in Qinghai province and Yunnan province for comparative study,and calculates the different critical points for photovoltaic energy storage power projects to achieve grid parity in the above three provinces.The model can be used to analyze the cost benefit of photovoltaic energy storage power project,to measure LCOE,and to predict the initial year when photovoltaic energy storage power project will realize grid parity in the future.