货币政策不确定性、宏观经济波动与预期管理

Research on Monetary Policy Uncertainty,Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Expectation Management

以货币政策不确定性为切入点,运用SV-TVP-FAVAR模型分析货币政策不确定性冲击下宏观经济的脉冲响应特征及阶段异质属性,进一步基于包含预期的DSGE模型模拟预期与未预期货币政策的宏观经济效应,检验预期管理对货币政策不确定性宏观经济弱化效应的“逆向”调控功效。结果表明:货币政策不确定性对宏观经济产生抑制作用,抑制程度与观测变量有关;货币政策不确定性的宏观经济抑制效应存在阶段差异,长短期评价指标下货币政策不确定性的宏观经济弱化效应由强到弱为货币政策不确定性上升期、下降期和平稳期,货币政策“跨周期”与“逆周期”调控不存在冲突;预期货币政策的宏观经济调控效果优于未预期货币政策,预期管理具有弱化货币政策不确定性对宏观经济的负向冲击效果,发挥“逆向”调控功效,货币政策预调微调功效明显。

This paper takes the monetary policy uncertainty as an entry point,based on the theoretical mechanism of monetary policy uncertainty and expected management macroeconomic effects,and analyzes the dynamic shocks of monetary policy uncertainty on the macroeconomic and the characteristics of phase heterogeneity based on SV-TVP-FAVAR model,and further based on DSGE model to simulate and test the macroeconomic effects of expectation monetary policy and possible reverse regulation of the weakening effects.The research results show that:First,monetary policy uncertainty has a significant inhibitory effect on the macro economy,and the degree of inhibition is related to the observed variables.Second,there are stage differences in the macroeconomic suppression effect of monetary policy uncertainty.The macroeconomic weakening effects of monetary policy uncertainty change as the period of rising,falling and plateau.There is no conflict between the“cross-cyclical”regulation and the“counter-cyclical”regulation.Third,the macroeconomic regulation effects of expected monetary policy are better than the unexpected situation,and expectation management can become a reverse regulation tool,and the effect of pre-adjustment and fine-tuning of monetary policy is obvious.