2004-2018年葫芦岛市气象因素对细菌性痢疾发生的影响研究

Study on the Relationship between Meteorological Factors and the Incidence of Bacterial Dysentery in Huludao,China from 2004 to 2018

目的细菌性痢疾仍然是很多地区重要的公共卫生问题之一,本研究旨在探讨气象因素对细菌性痢疾发生的影响。方法收集辽宁省葫芦岛市2004-2018年细菌性痢疾月别发病数据,从国家气象信息中心收集该地区月别气压、气温、蒸发量、降水量、降水天数、风速、日照时数、日照百分比和相对湿度等数据。基于广义相加模型探讨气象因素和细菌性痢疾发病数之间的关系。结果多数模型的决定系数(R 2)均超过0.5。气温、降水和湿度与细菌性痢疾的发生呈正相关,气压和日照与细菌性痢疾的发生呈负相关。结论葫芦岛市细菌性痢疾的发生与气象因素密切相关,应根据细菌性痢疾的流行特征和气象因素的变化制定相应的防控措施,降低疾病的发生风险。

Objective Bacterial dysentery remains one of the important public health issues in many regions,and the present study aims to explore the influence of meteorological factors on the occurrence of bacterial dysentery.Methods The data of monthly incident numbers of bacterial dysentery cases in Huludao,a northeastern city of China,from 2004 to 2018 was obtained from Huludao Municipal Center for Disease Prevention and Control.Meteorological data including monthly air pressure,temperature,evaporation,precipitation,number of precipitation days,wind speed,sunshine hours,sunshine percentage and relative humidity were retrieved from the China Meteorological Data Service Centre.Generalized additive model(GAM)was adopted to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and the number of bacterial dysentery cases.Results The determination coefficients(R 2)of most models exceeded 0.5.Air temperature,precipitation and humidity were positively correlated with the occurrence of bacterial dysentery,and air pressure and sunshine were negatively correlated with the occurrence of bacterial dysentery.Conclusion The occurrence of bacterial dysentery in Huludao is closely related to meteorological factors,and corresponding prevention and control measures should be formulated according to the epidemic characteristics of bacterial dysentery and changes in meteorological factors to reduce the risk of disease.