再论长寿风险可保性

Further Discussion on Insurability of Longevity Risk

由于对长寿风险是否符合大数定律,是否具有可保性存在疑虑,在中国人口日趋老龄化的今天,面对巨大的市场需求,保险公司却很少提供有效的养老保障产品。为此本文依据风险可保性要求,系统分析了长寿风险特征;同时梳理了长寿风险不可保的观点演变过程,深入剖析了源起观点的论证逻辑,指出其适用条件和局限性。通过分析,得到个体长寿风险适用于大数定律,符合风险可保性要求的结论,因此具有可度量性和可保性;同时,随着精算技术的进步和金融工具的发展,长寿风险可以被有效管理。

There is doubt about whether the longevity risk is accord with the law of large numbers,and whether the longevity risk is insurable.With Chinese population aging,insurance companies rarely provide effective endowment insurance products,which don't meet the huge demand.For this reason,this paper systematically analyzes the longevity risk characteristic based on the requirements of longevity risk insurability.In the discussion,this paper sorts out the evolution process of the view that the longevity risk is insurable,deeply analyzes the argumentation logic of the source viewpoint,and points out its applicable conditions and limitations.Through analysis,we agree with that the individual longevity risk is applied to the law of large numbers,which meets the requirements of risk insurability,so it is measurable and insurable.At the same time,with the progress of actuarial technology and the development of financial instruments,longevity risk can be effectively managed.