“多源流理论”视阈下中国易地扶贫搬迁政策阶段变迁的动力研究

Study on the Dynamics of Stage Change for China's Policy of Relocating the Poor from the Perspective of Multiple-Streams Theory

易地扶贫搬迁作为中国反贫困实践的重要内容,对中国反贫困事业的决胜功不可没。政策的变迁虽不可逆,却充满着政策记忆。借助多源流理论对易地扶贫搬迁政策的阶段性变迁进行探索后发现,政策之窗开启时,源流的有机汇聚推动着政策变迁,但导致政策阶段变迁的三个源流所发挥的作用存在差异。政策试点探索阶段,政策变迁主要由问题源流决定;政策全面推进阶段,政策变迁由政策源流主导;政策重点攻坚阶段,政治源流在政策变迁占支配地位。此外,政策阶段变迁中三个源流的内涵不仅有自身的独特之处,且政策变迁的阶段具有继承性。中国长期政策的推进既要注重分阶段进行,又要注重问题、政策和政治本身在不同时期的变化对政策变迁和实施效果的影响。

As an important part of China's anti-poverty practice,relocating the poor has significantly contributed to the decisive victory of China's anti-poverty cause.Although the policy change is irreversible,it is full of policy memory.Based on the multi-streams theory,this paper explores the phased changes of the policy of relocating the poor and finds that when the window of policy is opened,the organic convergence of sources and flows promotes the policy changes,but the three streams and flows that lead to the policy stage changes play different roles.Policy change is mainly determined by the problem stream in the stage of policy pilot exploration.Policy change is dominated by the policy stream in the stage of comprehensive policy promotion.In the decisive stage of the policy of relocating the poor,the political stream plays a dominant role in the policy change.In addition,the connotation of the three streams in the policy stage change not only has its own unique features,but also the stage of policy change has the inheritance.The promotion of China's long-term policy should not only focus on the phased implementation,but also pay attention to the impact of changes in issues,policies,and politics in different periods on policy changes and implementation effects.