Study on operation strategy and load forecasting for distributed energy system based on Chinese supply-side power grid reform

This study focuses on the development and analysis of a real-time updated operations strategy of a distributed energy system(DES).Owing to the relevant Chinese policy of electrical transmission and distribution,combined cooling,heating,and power system(CCHP)and photovoltaic(PV)systems are not currently allowed.However,with the Chinese supply-side power grid reform,the permissions for connections between DESs and utilities are gradually evolving.By performing building simulation and using mixed integer linear programming(MILP),a real-time updated operation strategy of a DES is established.Then,considering the DES from Tianjin Eco-city as a case study,a comparative analysis between this updated strategy and the current operation strategy is performed by evaluating three factors:economic efficiency,energy consumption,and CO2 emission.The results show that the updated strategy can reduce 29.12%of electricity time-of-use cost,10.11%of total fuel consumption,and 18.40%of CO2 emission during the cooling season.Besides,a method of“rolling load forecasting”for DES by using Support vector regression machine(SVR)is proposed and discussed.The testing shows that the Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE)is below 7.5%.And when the training sample is large,the particle swarm optimization algorithm can be used to shorten the modeling time of the air conditioning load forecasting model.