世界经济能否出现新的“黄金时代”

Will There Be A New“Golden Age”in the World Economy?

本文基于19世纪以来世界经济增长状况的考察发现,1950—1973年“黄金时代”的经济增长,主要是追赶者贡献的。美国作为发展水平上的领先者和全球经济增长的拉动者,虽然其自身增长速度也快于前后两个阶段,但从世界经济增长总量来看,却是次要的贡献者。从“黄金时代”各个国家的增长路径看,美国在帮助其他国家获得增长的同时也给自身带来增长的机会。世界各国期盼有新的“黄金时代”,这需要更多发展中国家加入追赶者行列,实现高速增长。发展中国家在教育、资本、基础设施、技术进步等方面与发达国家存在巨大差距,国际市场仍有进一步扩大的空间,技术前沿还有不断拓展的可能性,因此,对世界经济的未来不可失去信心。中国进入中高收入阶段,自身面临增长动力和发展模式的转变,更需要一个稳定的外部市场,在实现可持续增长的同时,也为其他国家提供增长机会。每一个国家都有共同维护世界经济发展局面的义务。

The investigation of the world economic growth since the 19th century shows that the“Golden Age”from 1950 to 1973 was mainly contributed by the chasers.As a leader in the level of development and a driver of global economic growth,the United States has grown faster than the two adjacent stages,but it is a secondary contributor in terms of the total amount of world economic growth.From the growth path of each country in the“Golden Age”,the United States not only helps other countries to achieve growth,but also brings growth opportunities to itself.Countries all over the world are looking forward to a new“Golden Age”,which requires more developing countries to join the ranks of chasers and achieve rapid growth.There is a huge gap between developing countries and developed countries in education,capital,infrastructure and technological progress,and there is still room for further expansion of the international market.Therefore,we should not lose confidence in the future of the world economy.China has entered the middle-and high-income stage,and it is facing the transformation of its growth momentum and development model.In particular,it needs a stable external market,which can achieve sustainable growth and provide growth opportunities for other countries.Every country has the obligation to jointly safeguard the world economic development.