土地要素的空间配置与城镇化提速——基于边界断点的实证研究

Land Spatial Allocation and Urbanization Acceleration:An Empirical Study Based on Geographic Regression Discontinuity

土地要素的空间配置对于协调区域经济发展具有重要意义。本文以2000年之后东部地区土地供应收紧为政策背景,使用第五和第六次人口普查数据构建地理断点回归模型,分析了城市土地在不同区域之间的配置对当地城镇化发展的影响。研究发现,边界两侧50千米之内的县(市、区)在2000年以前具有相似的初始城镇化水平和地理特征,在东部地区土地供应收紧后当地的城镇化速度大约下降了10.8个百分点。机制分析表明,收紧城市土地供应提高了当地企业扩大再生产的用地成本,降低了固定资产投资增速,减缓了当地的城市化发展进程。本文的研究结果表明,畅通土地要素跨区域配置对于挖掘城镇化发展潜力具有重要的现实意义。

Land spatial allocation is of great significance in coordinating regional economic development.Combining census data and geographic regression discontinuity model,this paper analyzes the impact of the place-based urban land allocation on urbanization development.It is found that counties(cities and districts)within 50 kilometers of the border share similar initial urbanization levels and geographical characteristics,however,the urbanization speed decreased by 10.8 percentage points after land supply reduction in the eastern region.Mechanism analysis shows that decreasing urban land supply increases the land cost for enterprises to expand,reduces the investment growth rate,and slows down urbanization.The research indicates that unified large market construction of land factors is conducive to urbanization.