九江市农地利用碳排放时空演变、影响因素及趋势预测

Spatial and Temporal Evolution, Influencing Factors and Trend Prediction of Carbon Emissions from Agricultural Land Use in Jiujiang City

[目的]揭示九江市农地利用碳排放时空演变特征,探究其影响因素和未来变化趋势,进而为促进农业低碳发展提供理论依据和数据支撑。[方法]以九江市为例,基于农业物资投入、稻田种植、农田土壤利用、畜禽肠道发酵和畜禽粪便管理5类碳排放源测算2006—2020年农地利用碳排放量,分析其时空演变特征,利用LMDI模型探究影响因素,并采用ARIMA模型预测了2021—2025年的变化趋势。[结果](1)九江市农地利用碳排放总量呈先波动上升后持续下降的趋势,碳排放强度在2018年有所上升,其余年份均持续下降,各类碳源的贡献度为稻田种植>农业物资投入>农田土壤利用>畜禽粪便管理>畜禽肠道发酵。(2)研究期间,各县(市、区)的农地利用碳排放量呈“六升五降”的变化趋势,所有县(市、区)的碳排放强度均大幅下降,降幅均高于50%;碳排放总量的核密度曲线向右移动且趋于平缓,极化效应有所减弱。(3)农业经济水平对农地利用碳排放具有促进作用,农业生产效率、产业结构和劳动规模具有抑制作用,不同县(市、区)的影响因素有所差异。(4)趋势预测结果显示:永修县、都昌县等8个县(市、区)农地利用碳排放在2020年之前达峰,修水县、德安县和共青城市在2021—2025年呈上升趋势。[结论]九江市农地利用碳排放有待进一步降低,未来应在保障粮食安全的前提下因地制宜地稳步推进农地利用碳减排。

[Objective]The aims of this study are to reveal the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of carbon emissions from agricultural land use in Jiujiang City,explore its influencing factors and future trends,and then provide theoretical basis and data support for promoting low-carbon agricultural development.[Methods]Taking Jiujiang City as an example,we measured carbon emissions from agricultural land use from 2006 to 2020 based on five types of carbon emission sources:agricultural material inputs,paddy cultivation,agricultural soil use,livestock and poultry enteric fermentation and livestock and poultry manure management,analyzed its spatial and temporal evolution characteristics,explored the influencing factors using LMDI model,and predicted the change trend from 2021 to 2025 using ARIMA model.[Results](1)The carbon emissions from agricultural land use in Jiujiang City showed a trend of fluctuating increase and then continuous decrease,the carbon emission intensity increased in 2018 and continued to decrease in the rest of the years,and the contribution of each carbon emission source followed the order:paddy cultivation>agricultural material input>agricultural soil use>livestock and poultry manure management>livestock and poultry enteric fermentation.(2)During the study period,the carbon emissions from agricultural land use in all counties showed a trend of six up and five down.The carbon emission intensity of all counties decreased significantly,and the decrease was higher than 50%.The kernel density curve of carbon emissions shifted to the right and leveled off,and the polarization effect weakened.(3)The level of agricultural economy had a facilitating effect on carbon emissions from agricultural land use,while agricultural production efficiency,industry structure and labor scale had a suppressive effect,with different influencing factors in different counties.(4)The trend prediction results showed that carbon emissions from agricultural land use in eight counties,including Yongxiu County and Duchang County,reached to the peak by 2020,and carbon emissions from agricultural land use in Xiushui County,De′an County and Gongqingcheng City show an increasing trend from 2021 to 2025.[Conclusion]The carbon emissions from agricultural land use in Jiujiang need to be further reduced,and the carbon emission reduction from agricultural land use should be steadily promoted in the future under the premise of ensuring food security according to local conditions.