全球货币政策和财政政策是如何突破“稳定区域”安全边界的?(下)

How did Global Monetary and Fiscal Policy Breach the SecurityBoundaries of the "Zone of Stability"? (Ⅱ)

20世纪90年代以来的全球化成就了世界范围内的低通货膨胀和高增长,这使各国逐渐忽视了通货膨胀指标的警示作用,也使政策制定者高估了扩张性的财政政策和货币政策对经济增长的促进作用。政府长期不计成本地使用扩张性政策,政策效果的叠加与累积使得各国财政政策和货币政策逐渐失去了回旋余地,突破了“稳定区域”的安全边界,最终导致全球经济面临通货膨胀高企与金融不稳定的双重挑战。因此,要想抑制通货膨胀,实现金融稳定,必须克服财政政策和货币政策的非对称效应,建立健全宏观审慎框架和微观审慎框架,承认宏观政策的不完善性,将财政政策和货币政策维持在“稳定区域”的安全边界内。

Globalization since the 1990s has resulted in low inflation and high growth worldwide,which has led countries to gradually ignore the warning role of inflation indicators and policymakers to overestimate the role of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in promoting economic growth.Governments have been using expansionary policies for a long time at no cost,and the superposition and accumulation of policy effects have led to a gradual loss of room for manoeuvre in countries'fiscal and monetary policies and a breach of the safe boundaries of the"stabilization zone",which has ultimately led to the global economy facing the dual challenges of high inflation and financial instability.Therefore,in order to curb inflation and achieve financial stability,it is necessary to overcome the asymmetric effects of fiscal and monetary policies,establish a sound macro-prudential and micro-prudential framework,recognize the imperfections of macro-policies,and maintain fiscal and monetary policies within the safe boundaries of the"stabilization zone".