绿氢制备经济性趋势分析

Economic Trend Scenario Analysis of Green Hydrogen Production

氢能被认为是未来能源系统的重要组成部分,只有通过可再生能源电力制备的绿氢才是清洁的能源产品。在绿氢替代传统化石燃料制氢的过程中,经济性是重要的制约因素。在分析预测可再生能源发电成本和绿电获取成本的基础上,分别计算使用电网绿电连续制备绿氢和使用可再生能源发电间歇制氢的成本,结合氢气储运场景,研究绿氢制备经济性的发展趋势。研究结果表明,采用电网绿电配合碱性电解槽连续制备绿氢,是当前最经济可靠的绿氢制备方式。如采用专用绿电制氢,2030年前陆上风电+碱性电解槽制氢成本最低,专用光伏发电+碱性电解槽制氢将在2030年后成为经济性最好的专用绿电制氢方式,而专用光伏发电+PEM电解槽制氢的成本始终最高。采用专用陆上风电和光伏+碱性电解槽制备氢气的经济性,在2025年后将超越天然气制氢+CCS,在2040年后会逐步超越煤制氢+CCS。电力成本是驱动未来绿氢制备成本下降的主要因素,电解槽成本下降对绿氢成本下降影响较小。建议要加强先进绿电制氢技术研发,拓宽可再生能源发电终端消纳的途径;同时要加强对国际绿氢制备前沿技术的跟踪。

Hydrogen energy is considered to be an important part of the future energy system,and only green hydrogen prepared by renewable energy is a clean energy product.In the process of green hydrogen production replacing traditional fossil fuel hydrogen production,economy is an important constraint.Based on the analysis and prediction of renewable energy power generation cost and green electricity acquisition cost,the cost of continuous green hydrogen production using grid green electricity and intermittent hydrogen production using renewable energy power generation were calculated respectively.Combined with hydrogen storage and transportation scenarios,the development trends of green hydrogen production economy was studied.The results show that the most economical and reliable method is to prepare green hydrogen continuously by using grid green electricity combined with alkaline electrolyzer.Such as the hydrogen production with dedicated green electricity,the cost of land wind power+alkaline electrolyzer hydrogen production cost is the lowest before 2030,the dedicated photovoltaic power generation+alkaline electrolyzer hydrogen production will become the best economic mode of hydrogen production with dedicated green electrictity after 2030,and dedicated photovoltaic power generation+PEM electrolyzer hydrogen production cost is always the highest.The economy of hydrogen production using dedicated onshore wind power and photovoltaic power+alkaline electrolyzer will surpass hydrogen production from natural gas+CCS after 2025,and will gradually surpass hydrogen production from coal+CCS after 2040.The cost of electricity is the main factor to drive down the cost of green hydrogen preparation in the future,and the cost of electrolyzer has less influence on the cost of green hydrogen.It is suggested to strengthen the research and development of advanced hydrogen production technology with green electricity and broaden the way of consumption of renewable energy power generation terminal;at the same time,it is necessary to strengthen the tracking of the international green hydrogen preparation frontier technology.