崩塌灾害危险性评价云模型及其应用

Cloud Model of Collapse Hazard Assessment and its Application

为综合考量评价过程中的模糊性和随机性,基于层次分析法与云模型理论建立了崩塌灾害危险性的云模型评价方法。在崩塌形成机制分析的基础上,选定了6个评价因子,分别为危岩体特征、坡高、坡度、年均降雨量、地震动峰值加速度、人类活动影响距,进而采用层次分析方法确定各因子权重,依据单因素分级标准计算各评价指标隶属于不同评价级别的云模型数字特征后,由正向高斯云算法和因子权重值计算综合确定度,根据最大确定度得到崩塌灾害危险性级别,最后通过工程实例探讨了该方法的可行性与有效性。研究表明,采用云模型进行崩塌灾害危险性评价具有可行性,实例验证结果与赤平投影分析法一致,不仅可以考虑评价过程中的随机性和模糊性,而且能根据综合确定度判断同一危险性级别内不同危岩体的危险程度。

In order to reflect the fuzziness and randomness in the risk assessment of collapse hazard,a method of collapse hazard assessment based on cloud model is proposed.Based on the analysis of collapse formation mechanism,six evaluation factors are selected,including the characteristics of dangerous rock mass,slope height,slope,average annual rainfall,peak acceleration of ground motion,and influence distance of human activities,and then the weight of each factor is determined by using the analytic hierarchy process.After calculating the digital characteristics of the cloud model that each evaluation index belongs to different evaluation levels according to the single factor classification standard,the comprehensive certainty is calculated by the forward Gaussian cloud algorithm and the factor weight value,and finally the hazard level of collapse disaster is obtained according to the maximum certainty.The feasibility and effectiveness of this method are discussed through engineering examples.The research results show that the evaluation results of this method are reliable,and the randomness and fuzziness of the evaluation can be considered at the same time,and the risk degree of different dangerous rock masses in the same risk level can be judged according to the comprehensive degree of certainty.