基于空间插值与典型滑坡体的滑坡灾害气象预警模型研究

Research on Meteorological Warning Model of Landslide Hazards Based on Spatial Interpolation and Typical Landslides

针对以往研究大多仅利用统计方法确定地质灾害预警临界雨量阈值,难以顾及不同滑坡体所具有地层、岩性等条件的不足,利用改进信息量模型构建安徽省滑坡灾害预警分区,通过耦合有效雨量和临界雨量获得全省75个典型滑坡点的临界雨量阈值,对其进行分区空间插值,并据此构建安徽省滑坡灾害气象预警模型。研究结果表明,该模型比现有预警模型的预警级别更准确,空间精度更高,克服了现有模型预警级别偏低,预报范围较宽泛的不足。

In view of the fact that most previous studies only use statistical methods to determine the threshold of critical rainfall for geological disaster warning,which is difficult to take into account the deficiencies of strata,lithology and other conditions of different landslide bodies,the improved information content model is used to construct the landslide disaster warning zone in Anhui Province,and the critical rainfall threshold of 75 typical landslide points in the province is obtained by coupling the effective rainfall and critical rainfall.The prediction model of landslide disaster in Anhui Province is established based on the spatial interpolation method.The results show that this model has more accurate warning level and higher spatial accuracy than the existing models,and overcomes the shortcomings of the existing models with lower warning level and wider forecast range.