基于灾害复杂网络的深圳台风灾害链风险分析

Risk Analysis of Typhoon Disaster Chain in Shenzhen Based on Complex Network

台风灾害是影响我国沿海地区最严重的自然灾害之一,为了更加科学地认识台风灾害引发的各类风险与影响,把握台风灾害演化的路径及其防控重点,该文提出一种基于灾害复杂网络进行风险分析的方法。基于1980—2020年间对深圳市造成影响的台风灾害,将灾害事件作为网络节点,事件关联关系为网络连接边,构建深圳市台风灾害复杂网络。引入复杂网络特征参数,构造台风灾害演化网络的节点综合重要度和连接边脆弱度。基于灾害事件发生概率和风险减缓因子构建了深圳市台风灾害链风险评价模型,对深圳市台风灾害演化过程中较为典型的灾害链条风险值进行了定量的评估。结果表明,该方法能够识别出台风灾害网络中的重要环节,得到风险较高的灾害演化链条,为防灾减灾提供参考。

Typhoon is one of the most serious natural disasters affecting the coastal areas of China.In order to scientifically understand the various risks and impacts caused by typhoon disasters,identify the evolution process of typhoon disaster and the key points of prevention,a risk analysis method based on disaster complex network is proposed.Taking Shenzhen as an example,based on the historical cases of 2018-2020,the complex network of typhoon disaster in Shenzhen is constructed by taking disaster events as network nodes and event relations as network connecting edges.The network characteristic parameters of complex network theory are introduced to quantitatively analyze the importance of the nodes and the vulnerability of the edges in disaster evolution network.The risk assessment model of typhoon disaster in Shenzhen was established by introducing the probability of disaster events and risk mitigation factors,and the risk of typical disaster chain during the typhoon evolution in Shenzhen was quantitatively evaluated.The results show that the method can obtain the key nodes in the urban typhoon disaster evolution process,and identify the disaster evolution chain with high risk,providing reference for typhoon disaster prevention and reduction.