京津冀地区农业现代化与乡村旅游耦合协调研究

Coupling coordination research on agricultural modernization and rural tourism in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration

为了深入探索京津冀地区农业现代化与乡村旅游之间的协调适配关系,促进两者的协同发展以增强该地区的可持续发展,本研究基于综合评价法、熵值法、耦合协调度模型等方法,从经济、生态和社会三个维度建立了评价农业现代化系统和乡村旅游系统的指标体系,分析了2010—2019年京津冀地区13个城市农业现代化与乡村旅游耦合协调关系的时空变化特征。结果表明:2010—2019年京津冀地区的农业现代化系统综合发展水平整体呈波动上升趋势,增幅为27%,乡村旅游系统呈持续上升趋势,增幅为134%,综合水平增幅表现为乡村旅游>农业现代化;京津冀地区农业现代化系统与乡村旅游系统存在较强的耦合互动关系,耦合度状态由磨合阶段上升为良性耦合,耦合协调度稳步提高,从濒临失调发展为勉强协调,研究期内始终呈北低-南高的空间分布特征;2010—2019年京津冀地区乡村旅游发展存在明显短板,总体表现为乡村旅游滞后状态,但差距趋于缩小。最后,依据研究结果提出了提升农业现代化与乡村旅游耦合协调发展的对策建议。

This study aimed to explore the coordinated and adaptative relationship between agricultural modernization and rural tourism within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,to promote coordinated development and enhance development sustainability in the region.We established an index system for evaluating three aspects of agricultural modernization and rural tourism(economy,ecology,and society),based on a comprehensive evaluation method,an entropy value method,and a coupling coordination degree model.We then analyzed the temporal and spatial variation of the coupling and coordination relationships between agricultural modernization and rural tourism in 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 2010 to 2019.During 2010—2019,overall,agricultural modernization showed a fluctuating upward trend,with 27%increase.Rural-tourism showed a robust and continuous upward trend,with 134%increase.The comprehensive level increase of rural tourism was greater than agricultural modernization.Moreover,agricultural modernization and rural tourism have a strong coupling interaction.The coupling degree has risen from the running-in to benign-coupling stage,and the coupling coordination degree has steadily improved to being mildly coordinated from the verge of maladjustment.Spatial distribution characteristics have consistently been low in the north and high in the south.Apparent shortcomings have been observed in the development of rural tourism in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2010 to 2019.In terms of overall performance,rural tourism lagged behind agricultural modernization;however,the gap is narrowing.Based on the results,countermeasures and suggestions are provided to improve the coupling and coordinated development of agricultural modernization and rural tourism.